Existential Angst
Now that summer is nothing more than a distant memory (it consisted of 3 warm days in June) I had planned to devote more attention to this blog. My initial head-scratching and tea-drinking has though produced only feelings of existential angst, I worry that trading is very simple (which is not the same as easy) and am no longer sure what there is to write about. Let me try and summarise my thoughts and why I feel there is little room to say anything much original…
1. Traders believe that price behaves in a non-random way. If you don’t believe this then you are a gambler and are not welcome here.
2.Therefore the way to make money is to identify these non-random features and trade in such away as to exploit them for a positive edge. These non-random properties have no emotions so it makes no sense for you to either.
3.Profitability is achieved by repeatedly making positive expectancy decisions in a frustratingly probabilistic environment. Good decisions and positive outcomes are not strongly correlated in the short term. You have to accept this fact emotionally and plan for it rationally (e.g. by recognising that the probability of 10,20,30… losing trades in a row is non-zero).
4. Keep repeating 3.
So I am left feeling that all the rest is just noise, the four points above are all that really matter (in my opinion) and the real work is in applying them at that tricky right hand side of the chart. I’m not sure a blog is going to be any help and topics I used to think of as interesting might actually just be distracting.
The number of fellow bloggers who have fallen by the wayside, been silent for the last few months or moved onto that other zeroish-sum game, isn’t exactly inspiring me with confidence to continue either.
Let me mull it over for a bit. Perhaps blog-based existential angst is like the human kind and it will all feel better in the morning.
My thoughts exactly…but you said it first as I struggle to find a reason to prolong my own blog….
And as far as the “meat” is concerned..How does it go…?
Remain analytical…
Solve the problem (ergo minimize the ego or our illogical decision making matrix)…..
Find the edge….
Enhance that edge….
Use the analytical side to minimize the damage that our illogical decision making processes would to our account if left unfettered….
Nowhere in there does it say a blog would enhance any of that…..
And let go of the fact that I still couldn’t say anything smart about “existential”
sandy
September 6, 2010 at 5:17 pm
I think that analysis suggests you are even more rational than I am, I’m guessing you don’t get invited to many dinner parties
long&wrong
September 8, 2010 at 11:26 am
In the end, your blog is what you want it to become LW.
It would be great if it were to remain a contact point for friends from around the world.
daytrader233
September 6, 2010 at 9:48 pm
If I don’t sound too desperate, I am sure that the need for some interaction is one of my key reasons for blogging. Fellow bloggers, presumably because they are sufficiently interested in trading to make the effort to write about it, seem to be an intelligent bunch (can’t always say the same for trading forums etc).
long&wrong
September 8, 2010 at 11:24 am
Bah! Trading is quite frustrating I’ve played this game and lost and played it again and I’m getting better, the crazy thing that boggles my mind is that we are all pretty smart (I’m assuming) and we all think we have edges, but 90% of us will lose! I find myself having a hard time trusting my “edges” I can stare at a chart and think of every possible outcome and study everything that it’s doing / has done in the past and yet always in the end I am uncertain and slightly terrified. I hope you keep your blog up I’ve been reading for maybe a month now? Time means nothing to me, which is very very bad since time is extremely important, in the end do whatever will calm your frustrations and improve your happiness.
Scalpwiz
September 8, 2010 at 7:07 am
Hi Scalpwiz, thanks for the comment.
Your note reminds me of another source of angst… I seem to have tagged a lot of posts with ‘psychology’ but fundamentally believe the best way to trade is to just ignore the weak mind and ‘keep turning the handle regardless’.
As you say, if people are smart and have an edge then what can possibly get in the way of profit?!
long&wrong
September 8, 2010 at 11:31 am
Uh-oh. It would appear that No Special FX has taken a cue from all this blog/no-blog talk.
daytrader233
September 8, 2010 at 11:32 am
Don’t say that, Jules will think it is me again!
I went through my blogroll just before I published the ‘Existential Angst’ post and he had already gone by then, as had Attitude Trader, By Age 25 etc etc.
I can’t decide if moaning about a bit of hard work counts as keeping a blog alive so there might be another addition to that list
long&wrong
September 8, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Oh, you Brits, with your dry sense of humour (that’s humor to the rest of us!).
Don’t count me out just yet. I’m simply building a bigger chip stack for the fall.
daytrader233
September 8, 2010 at 1:43 pm
hi l&w (and everyone else),
have you considered moving some of this discussion to twitter? blogging is great for laying out and storing important content but it takes a lot of time and effort. blogging activity across the board has decreased because that’s where a lot of these discussions are going. you just quickly post interesting things as they occur to you without all the overhead … the trick, like anything is to have it work for *you* and on your timeline and not just open the firehouse and expect to keep up – just think of it like a public version of instant messenger – while i’m not a huge twitterer yet – i’m definitely coming around to it.
kevin henderson
September 8, 2010 at 3:13 pm
if you’re interested, here’s basically what to do … go to twitter and create an account then go find people, and browse interests and go nuts finding/adding people if you want …. i’m henderK then from the home screen create a new list – call it friends (or trading or whatever). Then go and download tweetdeck (it’s free) and configure it for your account. After it’s set up you can add your friends column *separately* from you main feed. Buried in the settings is an option for ‘mark updates as read when moving with keyboard’ which i like to set and at the bottom of the column in tweetdeck is an option to clear seen updates. … that’s basically all there is to get started – but you can search for $ES or any stock symbols you want too and see other chatter about that too (and/or completely ignore it) and then you only have to blog when there’s something important you want to get down – anyway – let me know if there’s any way i can help … and thanks for all the great posts
kevin henderson
September 8, 2010 at 3:31 pm
sorry i haven’t shut up about this, but fyi you should know that as twitter is a somewhat “public” version of instant messenger – you can still send/receive private/direct messages as well – see http://bit.ly/9dZ9AG
kevin henderson
September 8, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Kevin, interesting ideas, wouldn’t have fitted into a ‘tweet’
long&wrong
September 9, 2010 at 1:48 pm
well that’s what blogs are for
kevin henderson
September 9, 2010 at 2:02 pm
and multi-part tweets are perfectly acceptable
kevin henderson
September 9, 2010 at 2:04 pm
The world needs you LW.
solfest
September 8, 2010 at 4:06 pm
People in glass houses etc.
(but thanks anyway).
long&wrong
September 9, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Hello Long and Wrong, i am Daniel i have been following you for over a year now, i have been SIM trading for 2 years now, and i am just break even, have though about giving up, but i just CANT something tells me to keep on going and keep my emotions in check, keep learning about market profile, and the relationship between markets and value…even though i feel i am almost “there” it just can not happen yet…i trade mainly ES and recently looking at CL, since i am based in EUROPE i would like to know which setting or better said, Chart trading hours do you use for FTSE? from 9 to 5 30 London time?
Let me know please, i want to base my strategy on puse Support and REsistance, nothing else
thanks
daniel
September 8, 2010 at 5:28 pm
Daniel,
Hi.
Not sure I fully understand the question but as you are recently break-even on sim I would concentrate now on real money with a market where it will be cheap (in terms of spread, trade size etc) to ‘be wrong’. A couple of years to get to your current stage is not unusual but do not underestimate the difference that even small amounts of real money will make.
I also have S/R as a central part of my method and have always failed to make any money with CL, there may be a lesson in that (or perhaps I am just useless at it!!).
long&wrong
September 9, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Thanks a lot Long & Wrong, I know it has been a long time on SIM (sometimes i doubt if i should really trade, but yes i am openning a futures account next week) …
Do you focus on FTSE right? DO you find it harder than ES? i get my support and resistance levels in ES from regular trading hours, thing that i CANNOT do with FTSE, since it runs pretty long from morning to afternoon? … what i was asking is How do you find your support and resistance levels for FTSE and which chart setting do you use? the whole session ? i mean you have your charts set for which session ? the WHOLE futures session of FTSE or an specific one like for example form 9 to 5 pm?
thanks a lot, i really appreciate it
DAniel
Daniel
September 9, 2010 at 2:49 pm
OK, I’m with you now.
This needs a proper reply and I’m (genuinely, not just putting you off!) overloaded at the moment. I’ll take the e-mail address from the comment and reply there in the next few days.
long&wrong
September 9, 2010 at 3:07 pm
Thanks a lot long and wrong,hope you can help me out with this thing that kills my head,
Greetings from Madrid,spain
Daniel
Daniel
September 9, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Hi long and wrong, sorry to bother again, i just keep thinking the same thing on my head over and over again with the chart settings, would you help me a bit when you get a chance?
thanks
daniel
daniel
September 13, 2010 at 4:48 pm
’tis done (to your gmail address)
long&wrong
September 13, 2010 at 4:56 pm